Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Critical Infrastructure Using Pan-European Open Datasets: A Unified Framework Applied to Schools Under Flood, Earthquake, and Landslide Hazards

Abstract

Recent evidence shows that multi-hazard events are becoming more frequent across Europe, highlighting the need to move beyond single-hazard approaches and toward integrated risk assessment. Despite recent advances, four key gaps persist: limited quantitative research on hazard interactions; model complexity that restricts large-scale applicability; narrow hazard coverage with insufficient integration of climate change scenarios; and neglect of cumulative impacts from sequential events. This study makes two complementary contributions. First, it proposes a scalable, unified multi-hazard risk assessment framework applicable at regional and European scales. In this framework, multi-hazard considerations are embedded throughout the entire assessment process—from study domain definition and loss metrics, through hazard characterization and conceptual incorporation of dynamic vulnerability, to the probabilistic treatment of hazard interactions and compound effects via a probabilistic, conditional-dependency framework conceptually represented as a Bayesian network. Second, based on the literature review conducted in this study, no prior European study was identified that combines flood, earthquake, and earthquake-triggered landslide hazards at the asset level for educational facilities. Therefore, this work is, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, among the first such quantitative, asset-level multi-hazard risk assessments. The framework is demonstrated for over 1700 school buildings in the Region of Central Macedonia, Greece, using pan-European open-access datasets (ESHM20, ESRM20, JRC, GIRI, and ELSUS v2), making it readily transferable across Europe. By supporting risk-informed prioritization of mitigation and resilience investments, this work is consistent with the broader objectives of the Sendai Framework and the UN Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 11 and SDG 13.

Published: 6 July 2026.